Daily Killings in the nation Fall Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The average count of everyday killings each month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per recent government figures. However, public safety specialists have advised that murder data may not indicate better national safety.

Significant Decline in Daily Figures

There was an average of close to 55 homicides a day in last November compared with roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September. This data was delivered by the head of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that we have seen during these months is remarkably important,” the President stated, noting that in November the smallest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to confront the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced reduction in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have specific tracking locality by locality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased cooperation between government authorities.

Expert Warnings and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety analysts warned that relying on murder statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was misleading. This is especially true considering the increase in other crimes such as abductions.

“That would be very good information if this was a drop, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide numbers and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year compared with the same timeframe last year. Yet, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not valid for gauging the reality of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the resources or the desire to properly identify and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of daily killings was additionally concerning because it could obscure days when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day mean renders spikes of violence unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 suspects were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, per government data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs intercepted.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with severe bloodshed, with several states in the throes of cartel-driven violence. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

Weeks later, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to express their anger at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to create a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s extremely potent, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” Vargas said.